摘要 Meteorological drought has been an inevitable natural disaster throughout Mexican history and
the northern and northwestern parts of Mexico (i.e., the studied area), where the mean annual precipitation
(MAP) is less than 500 mm, have suffered even more from droughts in the past. The aim of this study was
to conduct a meteorological drought analysis of the available MAP data (1950–2013) from 649
meteorological stations selected from the studied area and to predict the drought features under the different
IPCC-prescribed climate change scenarios. To determine the long-term drought features, we collected 1×104
synthetic samples using the periodic autoregressive moving average (PARMA) model for each rainfall series.
The simulations first consider the present prevailing precipitation conditions (i.e., the average from 1950 to
2013) and then the precipitation anomalies under IPCC-prescribed RCP 4.5 scenario and RCP 8.5 scenario.
The results indicated that the climate changes under the prescribed scenarios would significantly increase the
duration and intensity of droughts. The most severe impacts may occur in the central plateau and in the Baja
California Peninsula. Thus, it will be necessary to establish adequate protective measures for the sustainable
management of water resources in these regions.
Abstract：
Meteorological drought has been an inevitable natural disaster throughout Mexican history and
the northern and northwestern parts of Mexico (i.e., the studied area), where the mean annual precipitation
(MAP) is less than 500 mm, have suffered even more from droughts in the past. The aim of this study was
to conduct a meteorological drought analysis of the available MAP data (1950–2013) from 649
meteorological stations selected from the studied area and to predict the drought features under the different
IPCC-prescribed climate change scenarios. To determine the long-term drought features, we collected 1×104
synthetic samples using the periodic autoregressive moving average (PARMA) model for each rainfall series.
The simulations first consider the present prevailing precipitation conditions (i.e., the average from 1950 to
2013) and then the precipitation anomalies under IPCC-prescribed RCP 4.5 scenario and RCP 8.5 scenario.
The results indicated that the climate changes under the prescribed scenarios would significantly increase the
duration and intensity of droughts. The most severe impacts may occur in the central plateau and in the Baja
California Peninsula. Thus, it will be necessary to establish adequate protective measures for the sustainable
management of water resources in these regions.
the Faculty of Engineering, National Autonomous University of Mexico.
References
通讯作者: Carlos ESCALANTE-SANDOVAL
E-mail: caes@unam.mx
引用本文:
Carlos ESCALANTE-SANDOVAL,Pedro NU?EZ-GARCIA. Meteorological drought features in northern and northwestern parts of Mexico under different climate change scenarios[J]. Journal of Arid Land, 2017, 9(1): 65-75.
Carlos ESCALANTE-SANDOVAL,Pedro NU?EZ-GARCIA. Meteorological drought features in northern and northwestern parts of Mexico under different climate change scenarios[J]. Journal of Arid Land, 2017, 9(1): 65-75.
2017, Vol. 9 
