Streamflow responses to climate change and LUCC in a semi-arid watershed of Chinese Loess Plateau
LI Qingyun1, SUN Yanwei1, YUAN Wenlin2*, LYU Subing1, WAN Fang1
1 School of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China;
2 School of Water Conservancy and Environment, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
Streamflow responses to climate change and LUCC in a semi-arid watershed of Chinese Loess Plateau
LI Qingyun1, SUN Yanwei1, YUAN Wenlin2*, LYU Subing1, WAN Fang1
1 School of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China;
2 School of Water Conservancy and Environment, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
摘要 Climate change and Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) have been identified as two primary factors affecting watershed hydrological regime. This study analyzed the trends of streamflow, precipitation, air temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET) from 1962 to 2008 in the Jihe watershed in northwestern Loess Plateau of China using the Mann-Kendall test. The streamflow responses to climate change and LUCC were quantified independently by the elasticity method. The results show that the streamflow presented a dramatic decline with a turning point occurred in 1971, while the precipitation and PET did not change significantly. The results also show that the temperature rose markedly especially since 1990s with an approximate increase of 1.74°C over the entire research period (1962–2008). Using land use transition matrix, we found that slope cropland was significantly converted to terrace between 1970s and 1990s and that forest cover increased relatively significantly because of the Grain for Green Project after 2000. The streamflow reduction was predominantly caused by LUCC and its contribution reached up to 90.2%, while the contribution of climate change to streamflow decline was only 9.8%. Although the analytical results between the elasticity method and linear regression model were not satisfactorily consistent, they both indicated that LUCC (human activity) was the major factor causing streamflow decline in the Jihe watershed from 1962 to 2008.
Abstract：
Climate change and Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) have been identified as two primary factors affecting watershed hydrological regime. This study analyzed the trends of streamflow, precipitation, air temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET) from 1962 to 2008 in the Jihe watershed in northwestern Loess Plateau of China using the Mann-Kendall test. The streamflow responses to climate change and LUCC were quantified independently by the elasticity method. The results show that the streamflow presented a dramatic decline with a turning point occurred in 1971, while the precipitation and PET did not change significantly. The results also show that the temperature rose markedly especially since 1990s with an approximate increase of 1.74°C over the entire research period (1962–2008). Using land use transition matrix, we found that slope cropland was significantly converted to terrace between 1970s and 1990s and that forest cover increased relatively significantly because of the Grain for Green Project after 2000. The streamflow reduction was predominantly caused by LUCC and its contribution reached up to 90.2%, while the contribution of climate change to streamflow decline was only 9.8%. Although the analytical results between the elasticity method and linear regression model were not satisfactorily consistent, they both indicated that LUCC (human activity) was the major factor causing streamflow decline in the Jihe watershed from 1962 to 2008.
This study was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41501025, 51609083, 41401038, 51509089) and the 2016 Key Scientific Research Projects for Universities of Henan Province (16A170014).
通讯作者: YUAN Wenlin
E-mail: ywl2009@zzu.edu.cn
引用本文:
LI Qingyun,SUN Yanwei,YUAN Wenlin等. Streamflow responses to climate change and LUCC in a semi-arid watershed of Chinese Loess Plateau[J]. Journal of Arid Land, 2017, 9(4): 609-621.
LI Qingyun,SUN Yanwei,YUAN Wenlin et al. Streamflow responses to climate change and LUCC in a semi-arid watershed of Chinese Loess Plateau[J]. Journal of Arid Land, 2017, 9(4): 609-621.
2017, Vol. 9 
