Coupling effect of risk factors in the construction of urban underground spaces
Li Xiaoxue1, 2 Lei Ke1 Tan Zhongsheng1 Wang Xiuying1
1. Key Laboratory of Urban Underground Engineering of Ministry of Education, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China;
2. POWERCHINA Hebei Electric Power Engineering Co., Ltd., Shijiazhuang 050000, China
Abstract：Definitions of the risk factor coupling effect and the risk factor coupling coefficient are proposed, and a calculation method for the coupling coefficient is deduced. In the context of the Guangzhou South station, the coupling effects of six groups of urban underground space construction risk factors are studied. The main conclusions are as follows. ①The coupling effect of the risk factors refers to the risk amplification (or suppression) effect caused by the correlation of the causal mechanisms between the risk factors when multiple risk factors exist at the same time. ② The coupling effect of the risk factors is closely related to the conditional probability between the risk factors and the risk events. Based on the principle of causal independence, the conditional probability increment caused by the coupling effects can be separated to define the coupling coefficients of the risk factors. ③The coupling coefficients of the risk factors can be calculated using the response surface methodology combined with a Bayesian belief network. ④The coupling effects of the urban underground space construction risk factors can be divided into “extremely strong coupling,” “strong coupling,” “medium coupling,” and “weak coupling.” The recommended value ranges of the corresponding coupling coefficients are (0.5, 1.0］, (0.25, 0.5］, (0.1, 0.25］, and (0, 0.1).
李小雪 雷可 谭忠盛 王秀英. 城市地下空间施工风险因素耦合效应研究[J]. 土木工程学报, 2021, 54(S): 76-86.
Li Xiaoxue Lei Ke Tan Zhongsheng Wang Xiuying. Coupling effect of risk factors in the construction of urban underground spaces. 土木工程学报, 2021, 54(S): 76-86.
