Abstract：The target of construction duration definitely plays an important role in the implementation performance of construction project, but numerous impact factors may affect construction duration, so that determining a reasonable construction duration accurately may be difficult. Based on the investigation of 212 building construction projects implemented in 2008-2015 in Shanghai, some critical impact factors of construction duration, including total cost, total floor area, total number of floors, height of eaves gutter, excavation depth, usage type and structure type, are identified. Several derivative factors, such as area of standard floor and cost per unit floor area, are also identified. Furthermore, the preliminary models, which meet the hypothesis tests, are obtained by applying the multiple linear regression analysis. A comprehensive comparison of those models reveals that the model with the logarithm of construction speed as a dependent variable is more accurate than any other models. By adjusting the impact factors, some prediction models can be attained. Based on the evaluation of different hypothesis tests, the best model of predicting the construction duration is recommended. Eventually, the stability and effectiveness of the proposed best model under different conditions is validated, and the optimized model of predicting construction duration and the application advices is presented based on a widespread discussion of different impact factors.
胡文发 常永霞 何新华 . 建筑工程项目工期的影响因素与预测模型[J]. 土木工程学报, 2018, 51(2): 103-112.
Hu Wenfa Chang Yongxia He Xinhua . Impact factors and prediction models of building construction duration. 土木工程学报, 2018, 51(2): 103-112.
